According to eMarketer, the U.S. retail sector could take years to recover from the impact of the coronavirus, and the hit could be worse than that of the Great Recession.
According to eMarketer’s latest forecast on U.S. retail sales (which includes auto and fuel), total retail sales will drop by 10.5% this year, steeper than the 8.2% drop in 2009. E-commerce is the only bright spot, jumping 18.0% this year, as Americans rely on Amazon and other online retailers for necessities.
In 2020, total retail sales will drop 10.5% to $4.894 trillion, a level not seen since 2016.
Brick-and-mortar sales will weigh down overall retail long term. Brick-and-mortar retail sales will fall 14.0% to $4.184 trillion in 2020. It will take up to five years for offline sales to return to pre-pandemic levels.
While e-commerce hasn’t been nearly strong enough to offset brick-and-mortar losses, it is mitigating the severity of retail’s decline. E-commerce sales will climb 18.0% to reach $709.78 billion this year, representing 14.5% of total U.S. retail sales in 2020.
The top-growing e-commerce categories will be food and beverage at 58.5% and health/personal care/beauty at 32.4%, as Americans turn to online ordering for household essentials.
Apparel and accessories, the second-largest e-commerce category in overall sales, will grow just 8.6% as consumers shift spending from more discretionary, nonessential categories.
eMarketer also reports that, for the first time, Walmart will surpass eBay as the No. 2 e-commerce retailer in the U.S. Here’s how the top 10 US retailers (ranked by e-commerce sales) will fare this year.
It's expected -- for the first time -- that #Walmart will surpass #eBay as the No. 2 e-commerce retailer in the U.S. Click To Tweet“Amazon will increase its e-commerce market share to 38.0% and extend its reign of dominance,” said eMarketer principal analyst at Insider Intelligence Andrew Lipsman. “But big-box retailers are leveraging their click-and-collect models to accelerate their e-commerce businesses. This will push Walmart into the No. 2 position for the first time. Along with Target, Best Buy, The Home Depot and Costco Wholesale, Walmart is expected to grow e-commerce sales more than 35% in 2020.”
